One of best books about Hollywood is ‘Adventures in the Screen Trade’ in which the screenwriter William Goldman asserts that “nobody knows anything”.
He was referring to the fact that despite their market research, gut instinct and experience, no one in Hollywood has any idea how well a film will do before its release. He gives the example of one of the highest grossing films of all time – Raiders of the Lost Ark. It was turned down by every studio except Paramount.
But, of course, no one is allowed say that nobody knows anything, even though we would often like to. Take, for instance, the economics profession. It is tempting to ask what economics has done for us in the past 10 years, since its most valuable use in the popular imagination is for forecasting, at which it is staggeringly bad.
By and large, economists are better off throwing the proverbial darts at the dartboard. Economic forecasts are often guesswork with big words added to make it sound like they know what they are talking about.
We marketers are not without sin in this department. Some of our problems are inherent in the nature of what we do: I cannot guarantee that the launch event I did last week will create a huge influx of new customers, or predict a return on investment for the set-up costs associated with the event.
Bron en volledig bericht: MarketingWeek